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Thursday, January 1st, 2009, 8:00

TV: FOX

Forecast (from WeatherBug.com):
Click the "Miami, FL Weather" link to the right.
Game day forecast, as of 4:00 pm Monday: Partly cloudy, high of 76, low of 68

Click here for TechSideline.com's VT/Cincinnati roster card

Game Preview: #19 Virginia Tech (9-4, 5-3 ACC) vs. #12 Cincinnati (11-2, 7-1 Big East)
by Chris Coleman, TechSideline.com

The Hokies are back in South Florida for the second year in a row, and this time they are trying to get it right. #19 Virginia Tech will take on #12 Cincinnati on January 1 in the FedEx Orange Bowl. If the Hokies win, it will mean another 10-win season and a possible preseason Top 10 in 2009. If they lose, it will be the fourth bowl loss in the last five years, and another offseason of grumbling from the Hokie faithful.

Cincinnati is a very good football team, coming into this game with an 11-2 record. Like the Hokies, they are also a very clutch team. The Bearcats won six games by eight points or less this year, while Tech won four games by five points or less. While Virginia Tech's losses were all very close, Cincinnati dropped two blowouts to Oklahoma (52-26) and UConn (40-16).

As you'll see, these teams are pretty evenly matched.

Cincinnati has started three different quarterbacks this year, yet still managed to win the Big East and put up good numbers offensively.

The Bearcats run a spread offense with a heavy emphasis on the pass. They have finally settled on Tony Pike (6-6, 225, r-Jr.) at quarterback. Pike was barely on the depth chart when preseason practice began, but he transformed himself into one of the top quarterbacks in the Big East as the season moved along.

Pike completed 62.9% of his passes this year for 2,168 yards. He threw 18 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. He is arguably the best quarterback Virginia Tech has faced this season.

Pike is helped by a quality combination at wide receiver. Dominick Goodman (6-1, 210, Sr.) and Mardy Gilyard (6-1, 180, Jr.) put up impressive numbers this season, as you can see in the following table.

That's excellent production, particularly from Goodman and Gilyard. You'd be hard pressed to find a more production duo anywhere in the nation.

Virginia Tech will be forced to fight Cincinnati's excellent passing attack with a defense lacking its best pass rusher (Jason Worilds) and arguably its best linebacker (Brett Warren). Barquell Rivers, a r-freshman, will get the nod at mike linebacker, and the Bearcats will likely try to challenge him through the air, as most young linebackers struggle somewhat in pass defense.

To combat this, we could see more nickel formations from Virginia Tech's defense, with Rashad Carmichael entering the game against certain formations or in obvious passing situations.

While quarterback and wide receiver are Cincinnati's strengths on offense, the weakness is probably up front on the offensive line. First, let's take a look at the players.

Cincinnati allows 2.31 sacks per game, which ranks just 90th nationally. They don't do a good job of protecting the passer at all. They also aren't the most effective run blocking team. Although the Bearcats favor the pass, they do like to spread out teams and try to run the ball. They haven't been that successful this year, though they do have solid runners.

Jacob Ramsey (6-0, 230, Jr.) starts and splits time with John Goebel (6-1, 225, r-So.). Ramsey averaged 4.3 yards per carry this year, running for 630 yards and two touchdowns on 148 carries. Goebel carried the ball 124 times for 581 yards and seven touchdowns. Goebel is also an effective receiver with 25 catches for 265 yards.

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The most talented running back on the team is true freshman Isaiah Pead (5-11, 185, Fr.). Pead is a graduate of Eastmoor Academy in Columbus, OH. While at Eastmoor, he broke former Heisman Trophy winner Archie Griffin's school rushing record. Pead only had 28 carries this year, but he averaged 6.6 yards per carry. Against Hawaii in the final game of the season, he had eight carries for 74 yards. His workload could be increasing just in time for the Orange Bowl. He is a quick, speedy back that is perfect for carrying the ball out of spread formations.

Overall, Cincinnati has a good offense, and they are comparable to the Kansas offense that the Hokies faced last year. They aren't nearly as explosive as Kansas was, but they are efficient throwing the football. They aren't going to power the football down anyone's throat, but their running game can be effective if the passing game is successful.

Ultimately, I see Virginia Tech stopping the Bearcat running game and making their offense one-dimensional. We'll just have to see whether or not that will be enough to win the game.

The Cincinnati defense had a very good season. They have good players on each level of defense, particularly up front and in the secondary. They are also very experienced, with 10 seniors and one junior in the starting lineup.

Football starts in the trenches, so we'll first take a look at the Cincinnati defensive front. Defensive end Connor Barwin (6-4, 255, Sr.) leads the Big East in sacks with 11, and he also has 15.5 tackles for loss. Barwin is a great story, having just moved from tight end to defensive end this past spring for his senior season. He caught 31 passes last year as a tight end, and he had three catches for 36 yards in Lane Stadium in 2006.

Very few players are capable of having the type of success on both sides of the ball that Barwin has had. To top it off, he is also a former member of the Cincinnati basketball team. Overall, Barwin is a very good athlete and a good, instinctive football player. He is a definite NFL Draft pick this coming April.

At the other defensive end spot is Lamonte Nelms (6-3, 255, r-Sr.). Nelms is no slouch coming off the edge either, ranking third in the Big East with 6.5 sacks. He also finished with 14 tackles for loss.

The Bearcats get good defensive tackle play as well. They are led on the interior by All-American Terrill Byrd (6-1, 290, Sr.). Byrd is a tough player with a low center of gravity that is difficult to move. He finished the season with six tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Tech's interior offensive linemen will have their hands full, particularly first-time starter Jaymes Brooks.

The final starting defensive lineman, Adam Hoppel (6-2, 300, r-Sr.), has 5.5 tackles for loss and three sacks. This is a very productive group of defensive linemen. The Bearcats rank 9th in the country in sacks, at 2.85 per game.

There is no way around it - those are impressive numbers.

The Cincinnati linebackers aren't as talented overall as the defensive line or defensive backs, but they are still three good and experienced seniors.

Ryan Manalac (6-0, 235, r-Fr.) mans the middle of the defense. He led the team with 74 tackles on the year, and also added two tackles for loss. Weakside backer Torry Cornett (6-2, 235, r-Sr.) is a former starter on the Prarie View basketball team. He's a good athlete who posted 67 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and a sack.

Strongside linebacker Corey Smith (6-1, 225, Sr.) has been starting since he was a true freshman. He is the most athletic linebacker on the team. He had 61 tackles, nine tackles for loss and two sacks on the season.

The Bearcat secondary is arguably the most talented position on the team. It is led by cornerback Mike Mickens (6-0, 190, Sr.). Mickens has started since his true freshman season. He has intercepted four passes this season and 14 for his career. He is rated as one of the top 10 cornerbacks in college football, and has a good chance to end up a first day pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Mickens has plenty of competition from the other starting cornerback, DeAngelo Smith (6-0, 190, r-Sr.). Smith led the nation in 2007 with eight interceptions. He is a playmaker who combines with Mickens to form perhaps the best cornerback duo in the nation. He is also a projected draft pick this April.

The talent in the secondary doesn't stop at cornerback. Free safety Brandon Underwood (6-1, 190, r-Sr.) is a transfer from Ohio State. In his first season on the field for Cincinnati, he was one of the top playmakers on the defense. He recorded 60 tackles and three interceptions. He also had three fumble recoveries and forced two more fumbles, and was named a member of the All-Big East First Team Defense.

Strong safety Aaron Webster (6-3, 205, Jr.) is the only non-senior starter on the Cincinnati defense. He brings good size to the safety position. Webster finished the season with 55 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and an interception. As a team, the Bearcats are 23rd in the nation in interceptions, with 16.

As you can see, this Cincinnati defense is strong across the board. In some ways, they remind me of the 1995 Virginia Tech defense. All of their defensive linemen can rush the passer, their linebackers are solid to good, and their defensive backs can lock in on the best wide receivers out there.

When Virginia Tech is in their 3-wide receiver formations, they'll have six freshmen on the field on offense, out of 11 players total. Cincinnati will counter with 10 seniors and a junior on defense. And they don't just have experience - they have talent, too. That doesn't look like a very good matchup for the Hokie offense, on paper.

In a game that looks like it could go either way, special teams could be the difference. Here are some quick Cincinnati special teams stats.

The Bearcats play well on special teams. Their punting is particularly impressive. Kevin Huber (6-1, 220, r-Sr.) is an All-American punter, arguably the best player in the country at his position. He averages 44.9 yards per punt, and has 18 punts of 50+ yards this season. Behind Huber, Cincinnati finished first in the nation in net punting this season and last season. Huber is a major weapon for Cincinnati, and he could potentially put an already struggling Virginia Tech offense in poor field position.

Jake Rogers (6-3, 205, r-So.) is a good field goal kicker with excellent range. He finished the year 16-of-22, with a long of 54 yards. Rogers made 3-of-4 kicks from beyond 50 yards this year. Like Huber, he could be a major weapon in a game that could potentially come down to a field goal.

Finally, the Bearcats also have the top kick returner in the Big East. Wide receiver Mardy Gilyard was a First Team All-Big East player at both wide receiver and kick returner. For the season, he averaged 28.8 yards per return, and returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. He is a very dynamic player with the ball in his hands.

Cincinnati is no fluke. I don't think they have the overall talent of Virginia Tech, but I do think they are the most talented team in the Big East, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They pressure the quarterback, intercept passes and don't make many mistakes. Offensively, they are efficient at throwing the ball, and they have playmakers in the kicking game.

Basically, this is the most well-rounded football team the Hokies have faced this year. They are good in all three phases of the game. Tech will have to bring their A-game to win.

However, will the Hokies be able to bring their A-game? They will be missing starting left guard Nick Marshman. To plug that gap, right guard Sergio Render is changing positions, and r-freshman Jaymes Brooks will be making his first career start at right guard. We all know what generally happens to the Hokies when they get an injury up front and are forced to start moving players around.

Defensively, the Hokies will be without their top defensive lineman, Jason Worilds. Worilds had the potential to wreak havoc on a Cincinnati offensive that does a poor job of protecting the quarterback, but not anymore. His replacement will be Nekos Brown, a good player with a lot of experience, but not the playmaker that Worilds is.

At linebacker, Brett Warren had a very good senior season. However, he'll miss this game with a torn ACL. Barquell Rivers, a r-freshman, will replace him. I think Rivers has an excellent future at Tech, but you don't replace a r-senior with an inexperienced r-freshmen and not expect any dropoff in performance.

With so many key pieces missing, can the Hokies play their A-game against the Bearcats? Maybe, but it will be tough.

I like the way Virginia Tech is preparing for this game. I think they are focused, and I think they'll be ready to play. However, I'm just not sure it will be enough. Can those six freshmen (with a true sophomore quarterback, I might add) offensive players move the ball on such a good Cincinnati defense? I have my doubts.

I think the Tech defense will play well, despite the missing starters. I believe this game will come down to how well the Hokie offense will play. In the end, I just don't trust it.

Will Stewart's Take: Bowl games are tough to pick. The bulk of a team's stats are accumulated in conference play, and when teams from different conferences face off, you find yourself wondering how relevant the stats are. (Are ACC defenses strong statistically because they face weak offenses, or are the offenses weak statistically because of the quality of the defenses? Are defensive stats from a Big East team comparable at all to defensive stats in the ACC?)

You also don't know how the layoff and bowl prep will affect both teams. Cincinnati has prepped very hard for this game and wants to win it badly. Like the 1995 Hokies, they want to make a good first impression in their first BCS Bowl. I also know that the Hokies have prepped hard and are taking the game very seriously. So on the surface, this issue appears to be a wash.

Having said all that, I can't pick the Hokies to win this game in good conscience. VT has done an impressive job holding things together this year and winning yet another ACC title, but the losses of Marshman, Warren and Worilds are serious stuff. The one that really jumps out is Jaymes Brooks, who will start on the line in Marshman's absence and is about to get a rude introduction to college football, at the hands of All-American defensive tackle Terrill Byrd and running mate Adam Hoppel. The experience will be good for Brooks, who will get a good, long, 60-minute taste of big-time college football and will know just how hard he needs to work in the coming eight months to get ready for the 2009 season.

The experience will not, however, be good for the Hokies in this Orange Bowl.

Cincinnati is an impressive, well-rounded team, and in the one area where the Hokies could press an advantage -- pressuring the QB -- Tech has lost a weapon with the exit of Worilds to shoulder surgery.

There are still areas that could swing this game in Tech's favor, namely mistakes. The Bearcats are 84th in the nation in turnover margin, while Tech is 18th; Cincinnati is 106th in penalties per game, while the Hokies are 35th, and the disparity in penalty yards per game is larger: 108th for Cincy, 8th for VT.

If the Hokies don't make mistakes, the Bearcats might play into their hands. But if Cincinnati has a strong game in terms of turnovers and penalties, Tech will be hard pressed to make up the difference elsewhere.