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Saturday, September 20th, 2008, 3:30

TV: ABC (coverage map)/ESPN

Forecast (from WeatherBug.com):
Click the "Chapel Hill Weather" link to the right.
Game time forecast, as of 1:30 pm Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s.

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Game Preview: Virginia Tech (2-1, 1-0 ACC) vs. North Carolina (2-0, 0-0)
by Chris Coleman, TechSideline.com

Virginia Tech's recent victory over Georgia Tech makes this weekend's game even more critical. The Hokies will travel to Chapel Hill to take on a resurgent North Carolina team with dreams of winning the ACC this year. Just like last week, Tech will have to scratch and claw to the end if they want to leave with a victory.

North Carolina is 2-0 on the season, and at this point it's hard to tell exactly how good they are. In the first game, they barely knocked off 1-AA McNeese State 35-27. However, they rebounded to blow out Rutgers 44-12 on the road last Thursday night. The Heels were outgained in total offensive yards in both games.

Despite that, the Tar Heels match up with the Hokies very well at some key positions.

North Carolina has a talented quarterback playing behind an experienced offensive line, with excellent wide receivers on the outside. That's the recipe for a very good passing game, which is exactly what the Tar Heels have.

Before we get into that, let's take a look at the UNC offensive line. After all, football games are won at the line of scrimmage.

The right side of the UNC offensive line is clearly their strong point. Darity and Reynolds are in their third season as starters, and center Aaron Stahl is in his second, though he actually played guard last year. The Tar Heels tried to run off the right side a lot against Rutgers. The left side of the line isn't nearly as experienced. Despite being a senior, Byron Bishop had played in just seven career games heading into this season, and most of his snaps came on special teams.

That offensive line is assigned to protect one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the country. T.J. Yates (6-3, 210, r-So.) showed a lot of promise last year as a freshman, and he looks legit so far this year. He is 29-of-48 (60.4%) for 442 yards, with five touchdowns and just one interception.

Yates is a very advanced quarterback for his age. It's really amazing he is this good so quickly. He did not play football as a junior in high school, instead concentrating on basketball. He was one of the top 25 basketball recruits in the state of Georgia. He also missed spring practice this year, which is a critical time of development for young quarterbacks. Nevertheless, he's still playing at a high level.

Yates is helped by what appears to be the best wide receiving corps in the ACC. Hakeem Nicks (6-1, 210, Jr.), in my opinion, is the best all-around wide receiver in the conference. Last season he caught 74 passes for 958 yards and five touchdowns. Those 74 catches are a single season UNC record. He is a similar receiver to former Hokie Josh Morgan, with a good blend of size, strength and speed.

The receiver making the early headlines is wide receiver Brandon Tate (6-1, 195, Sr.). Tate is UNC's leading rusher with five carries for 125 yards and a touchdown. He also has eight catches for 231 yards and two touchdowns. That's 13 offensive touches for a total of 358 yards. So far on the season, Tate is averaging 27.5 yards every time he touches the ball on offense.

Offense isn't all he specializes in. Tate has four punt returns for 146 yards with one touchdown, and he has three kick returns for 114 yards. He leads the nation in all-purpose yardage. The following table sums it up.

You don't need to be a football genius to realize that's impressive. To give you a bit of perspective, Tate has almost as many receiving yards (231) as the Virginia Tech offense has passing yards (255).

Brooks Foster (6-3, 205, Sr.) is a solid #3 receiver who will see plenty of playing time. He had 29 catches last season and 38 in 2006. He is a very experienced player. The Hokies can't completely ignore him to focus on Hicks and Tate.

UNC's running game hasn't been that impressive this year, except for reverses to Brandon Tate. Greg Little (6-3, 220, So.) is a converted possession receiver who is not a natural running back. He doesn't hit the hole hard enough, and he doesn't have a whole lot of wiggle in his game.

Shaun Draughn (6-0, 205, So.) has been UNC's most impressive back running the football so far. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 15 carries. Anthony Elzy (5-10, 205, So.) ran for 74 yards on just 11 carries against Tech last year. However, he has just one carry on the season in 2008.

Overall, the UNC offense is much better in the passing game than running game. The offensive line is more of a finesse group than a power blocking unit, so their strength is in the passing game. The offensive backfield certainly isn't the strength of the offense either, so they aren't likely to rack up the rushing yards on the Hokies, unless Foster breaks one on a reverse.

However, UNC certainly has the chance to pass for a lot of yardage on the Hokies. I think Tech corners Stephan Virgil and Macho Harris are the best cornerback combination in the ACC, and I think UNC has the best group of starting wideouts in the conference. That should be a fun matchup to watch.

However, Kam Chancellor and Davon Morgan are off to tough starts in the secondary. Chancellor is starting to come around, but Morgan is still struggling. He has been caught out of position in the passing game against ECU and Furman, and isn't tackling particularly well. I see UNC going right after him, and they'll have some success. If he misses a tackle on Brandon Tate, then go ahead and dial up six on the scoreboard.

It will be important for the Tech defensive line to get penetration and collapse the pocket. When Yates hasn't felt comfortable, he's been prone to make mistakes in the past. It is important to keep the UNC passing game out of rhythm.

North Carolina has a young but talented defense. The Tar Heels start four sophomores and one freshman on the defensive side of the ball, and have just three seniors in the entire two-deep. As a result, they are only 82nd nationally in total defense this year, allowing 387 yards per game, despite playing a 1-AA team and a Rutgers team which is just 61st in total offense.

The defensive line is a talented group, but they are still probably a year away from being a consistently top-notch group. They have a tendency to play a bit soft against the run.

Defensive tackle Marvin Austin (6-3, 300, So.) is the big name of this group. He was a 5-star recruit who played quite a bit as a true freshman last season. He should have a good individual battle with Sergio Render. He's joined on the inside by talented players such as Cam Thomas (6-4, 330, Jr.), Aleric Mullins (6-3, 300, Jr.) and former VT recruiting target Tydreke Powell (6-3, 300, r-Fr.).

That interior line is still developing. They'll make some plays, but the Virginia Tech interior offensive line should be able to play well against them after blocking well against a better group of defensive tackles last week.

Defensive end E.J. Wilson (6-2, 280, Jr.) is UNC's most consistent defensive lineman. He leads the team with three tackles for loss on the season. The other starting defensive end is true freshman Robert Quinn (6-5, 260, Fr.). Backup defensive ends include Vince Jacobs (6-7, 235, So.), Greg Elleby (6-5, 290, So.), Darrius Massenberg (6-3, 280, So.), Quinton Coples (6-6, 245, Fr.) and Michael McAdoo (6-7, 245, Fr.).

The Tar Heels are playing three true freshmen at defensive end this season, and one of them is starting. They are also playing two sophomores. Along with the youth at defensive tackle, this makes for a very young defensive line. They will look good at times, but they can also be run on. They are still a bit soft as a group.

Last year, Virginia Tech was able to block UNC's defensive line, even with Richard Graham playing left guard and Brandon Holland playing right guard for the first quarter (Render was suspended). The Hokies used a lot of draws to the tailback out of the shotgun formation with Taylor at quarterback. Branden Ore enjoyed his only good game of the month of September, rushing for 93 yards on 19 carries.

UNC is young and talented at linebacker as well. Weakside linebacker Quan Sturdivant (6-2, 235, So.) is leading the team with 18 tackles. He also has an interception. Middle linebacker Mark Paschal (6-0, 230, Sr.) is the most experienced linebacker on the team. He has 16 stops through the first two games. Strongside backer Bruce Carter (6-3, 230, So.) is a talented player who started seven games last season.

The Tar Heels start three sophomores and a true freshman in their front seven. There is talent there, but they don't play consistently at this point. UNC has just one sack on the season, and they are just 69th nationally in tackles for loss. They aren't getting much penetration from that front seven.

Later on, we'll document Virginia Tech's lack of passing success on UNC. For now let's see how well the Hokies have run on the Tar Heels.

In 2004, Mike Imoh set the Virginia Tech record with 243 rushing yards in a single game. In 2005, Cedric Humes and Branden Ore both went over 100 yards against the Tar Heels. Ore had over 100 yards again in 2006, and added 93 in 2007. Based on history, and how young the UNC front seven is, the Hokies should be able to have some success on the ground with Darren Evans.

Cornerback is probably the weak spot on UNC's defense. Three of their top four players are sophomores, and one of them is a converted running back. Jordan Hemby (5-10, 185, Jr.) and Charles Brown (5-10, 200, So.) will split time at one corner position. Brown led the team in tackles against Rutgers with 10, though that can't be particularly good for a corner.

The other starting corner is Kendrick Burney (5-9, 185, So.). He started every game as a r-freshman last season. He struggled quite a bit at times, but the experience was good for him. Johnny White (5-11, 205, So.) started eight games at tailback for the Tar Heels last year, leading the team in rushing in the process. He is Burney's primary backup.

UNC is giving up 241 yards per game through the air, which is 88th in the nation, but the Hokies don't have the receivers to take advantage of this. Their best bet is to hit a big play or two, but a consistent passing game isn't likely. In fact, Tech has never been very good at throwing the football when playing UNC.

Those numbers include starting quarterbacks only. Ike Whitaker's touchdown pass to Greg Boone in mop-up duty in 2006 is not included.

UNC's safeties are very good. Trimane Goddard (5-11, 200, Sr.), the starter at strong safety, has seemingly been around forever, and he brings a steady influence to an otherwise young defense.

The starting free safety is Deunta Williams (6-2, 205, So.). He was the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007, starting every game and making 59 tackles. He also led the team with three interceptions, including one on a tipped pass against Virginia Tech.

Williams made a special announcement to the media before the season began: "We're going to win the ACC," he said.

Saturday he'll be facing the defending ACC Champions in a huge game, and he'll have a chance to back up that statement.

We've already covered Brandon Tate's exploits. He is a terrific kick and punt returner. The Hokies will have to be disciplined in their lanes, and they'll have to get good play from their gunners when punting the ball. The Hokies are fourth nationally in kickoff return yardage defense. Tech is allowing 11 yards per return on punts, however that includes East Carolina's block that was returned for a touchdown. Overall, the Hokies have been very good in their kick coverage.

The Tar Heels have used Jay Wooten (6-3, 185, r-Fr.) and Casey Barth (5-11, 170, Fr.) at kicker. They appear to have settled on Wooten as of now. He is 3-of-3 on the season, with a long of 43. Barth has missed his only attempt.

UNC allows just 17.83 yards per return on kickoffs, which ranks 26th nationally. However, they did allow a 70 yard punt return for a touchdown to McNeese State. Thanks in part to that return, UNC is just 99th nationally in net punting behind punter Terrence Brown (6-3, 190, Sr.).

This is a huge football game. If Virginia Tech can pull out a victory, they'll be 2-0 in the ACC, with the head-to-head tiebreaker against two Coastal Division teams. That's like a two game lead in the standings, and they have almost sure wins against two other Coastal teams, UVA and Duke, coming up later in the season. In fact, the Hokies don’t play another ACC game until they travel to Boston College on October 18. The Hokies could be, and arguably should be, a much improved football team by then.

I think 6-2 will be good enough to win the Coastal this year, depending on the tiebreakers I assume above. So if the Hokies beat UNC, they'll need to get four more ACC wins against the following teams: at BC, at FSU, Maryland, at Miami, Duke, Virginia. The three home games look good for victories, which means Tech would need to just win one of the three road games to finish 6-2. I like those odds.

However, a loss to UNC would mean not only losing the head-to-head tiebreaker, but it would mean Tech would have to win five of their last six ACC games to reach that 6-2 mark, including two of those three tough road games. And if UNC manages to finish 6-2 (possible, considering their schedule), Tech would have to win out against ACC competition!

So, will the Hokies win? First, let's go over some miscellaneous stats. UNC averages just four penalties per game, and 37.5 penalty yards per game. The yardage ranks 26th nationally. They are also sixth nationally in turnover margin, with a +2 average. It doesn't seem like they are going to give the Hokies anything. Tech is going to have to earn it.

When the Hokies get in the red zone, they have to make it count. UNC has allowed opponents to score 100% of the times they reach the red zone (4 touchdowns, 2 field goals). Tech can't get inside the 20 and come up empty.

I believe Virginia Tech will be able to move the football on the ground against UNC, and they might even be able to hit a couple of big plays in the passing game. UNC's linebackers are very athletic, a lot more athletic than Georgia Tech's, so Tyrod Taylor probably won't have quite as much room as he did last week. Still, I'm looking for a solid day on the ground from the Hokies.

UNC has a lot of young players on defense, and I believe the Hokies have the experience and talent in their starting offensive line to block them. However, it's not the Tech offense that worries me in this game (though it probably should). It's the Tech defense.

I have this vision of Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate hitting big plays down the field in the passing game. I see Davon Morgan being in the wrong place a couple of times, and UNC taking advantage. I also see a missed tackle or two that can lead to big yardage. I see UNC using the deep and intermediate middle of the field regularly, attacking the VT safeties and linebackers. Above all, I see T.J. Yates having time to sit in the pocket and pick out his receivers. That's tough to stop, no matter how talented your cornerbacks are.

Again, I'm expecting a dogfight, and it could come down to turnovers yet again. Kam Chancellor and Davon Morgan are very talented players. However, Chancellor is still adjusting to free safety, and Morgan is in his first year as a starter. They'll get it down, the question is when. It could be this week, it could be next week, it could be November. We simply don't know at this point. I believe their performance in this game could decide whether the Hokies come out of Chapel Hill with a victory.

Will Stewart's Take: It's not hard to figure out that the Virginia Tech keys are to run the football and slow down the UNC passing game.

It's also not hard to figure out that UNC is going to load up to stop the Hokie rushing game, so this is going to be a good old fashioned smash-mouth confrontation when the Hokies are on offense. At least, the part where Darren Evans runs the football will be smash-mouth. The part where Tyrod Taylor runs it is going to be a spread-em-out-and-run-past-em contest.

In the passing game, the Hokies were extremely conservative in Chapel Hill in 2006, with a young Sean Glennon running the offense. I look for more of the same here, with the occasional shot downfield, something the Hokie coaches have been saying needs to be added in to the offense. But overall, the Tech passing game doesn't promise to be much of a factor here.

Stopping UNC's passing game should make you sweat, because the Hokies have more than one issue here. Tech doesn't rush the passer well (84th in the nation in sacks), and as Chris noted above, Davon Morgan and Kam Chancellor are struggling with assignments and tackling. Tech's corners are solid, but little else about Tech's pass defense is.

The Hokies are ranked 89th in the nation in pass efficiency defense, and the Tar Heels are ranked #14 in the nation in pass efficiency. When you talk about the UNC passing game against the VT pass defense, you're talking about a UNC strength facing a VT weakness. Sounds like big-play city (for the wrong team) to me.

VT can counter with the #35 rushing attack in the country against UNC's 75th-ranked rush defense, and the side benefit is that a successful Hokie rushing attack will help slow down the UNC offense by keeping them off the field.

Look for Frank Beamer to go that route, seeking to establish the run, keep things under control, and limit mistakes. That's right up his alley, and it's the direction he's pushing this team in, anyway. We get to find out Saturday how close the Hokies are to reaching Frank's goal of a run-oriented, mistake-free team.

I've got a bad feeling about this game, and a loss, even a big one, would not surprise me. But as I blogged back in July, UNC has to show me first before I'll buy the hype, and I have to stand by that statement.