Big12 TV deal basically done

[LaneRat]

here's why. the Big12 is signing NEW deals to replace EXPIRING deals. the ACC is trying to go back to the table on a 1 year old deal set to expire in 2023. we can't go out to multiple parties to drum up bidding wars. we're locked into an agreement with ESPN and they have exclusive rights during this renegotiation. the BEST we can hope for is that we get this to mediation and the arbiter sees the timing of our contract (signed in a down economy ONE year prior to media rights skyrocketing) and the recent Pac12 and Big12 deals and tells ESPN to either level the offer or open up the contract to competition. call me skeptical, but i just don't see it working out that well for us. i'm just hoping we can get back in the ballpark WITHOUT the 2 year extension ESPN wants. getting it to ~$18MM/year per school through 2023 would feel like a win, but i think we'll end up ~$16MM/year per school through 2025 which would suck at best.

as roop said...Then again, we have Swofford negotiating on the ACC's part....

[hokieball]

This is from early February and not up to date. The ACC/ESPN deal has entered mediation to have the terms of the contract looked at.

[cburgroop]

here's why. the Big12 is signing NEW deals to replace EXPIRING deals. the ACC is trying to go back to the table on a 1 year old deal set to expire in 2023. we can't go out to multiple parties to drum up bidding wars. we're locked into an agreement with ESPN and they have exclusive rights during this renegotiation. the BEST we can hope for is that we get this to mediation and the arbiter sees the timing of our contract (signed in a down economy ONE year prior to media rights skyrocketing) and the recent Pac12 and Big12 deals and tells ESPN to either level the offer or open up the contract to competition. call me skeptical, but i just don't see it working out that well for us. i'm just hoping we can get back in the ballpark WITHOUT the 2 year extension ESPN wants. getting it to ~$18MM/year per school through 2023 would feel like a win, but i think we'll end up ~$16MM/year per school through 2025 which would suck at best.

Perhaps I'm overly optimistic but I think the ACC could end up with at least $20 million per school simply because of what the Big 12 (and Pac12) got and for the reasons I mentioned previously. I guess it all depends on how much of an impact the prevailing market rate has on renegotiation.

The ACC could make a good argument that it's at least comparable to the Big 12. I'd even go so far as to say $20 mil. for the ACC might be a bit low simply because ESPN owns their Tier III rights.

[BUGGZY]

Perhaps I'm overly optimistic but I think the ACC could end up with at least $20 million per school simply because of what the Big 12 (and Pac12) got and for the reasons I mentioned previously. I guess it all depends on how much of an impact the prevailing market rate has on renegotiation.

The ACC could make a good argument that it's at least comparable to the Big 12. I'd even go so far as to say $20 mil. for the ACC might be a bit low simply because ESPN owns their Tier III rights.

i love your optimism, but you know ESPN won't give that to us (why would they?), so we're relying on an arbitrator. i do think an arbitrator will side with us, but he will also take into account the fact we are in year 1 of a 12 year deal, and a contract is a a contract, so that will hurt us some. i'd be happy with $18MM and each school getting Tier 3 back, but i just don't see us getting more than $16-17MM and ESPN is unlikely to give up Tier 3, so maybe we just hope we can force them to bundle them into a new package that might not help us make more money short term, but will help us get our brand out there for the next TV deal in 12 years...

[Atlee Hokie]

I'd say you are overly optimistic. Why would espn fork over that kind of increase? They will give a little more to 1) let ACC same face, and 2) not push things to the point of sending the whole thing to mediation.

Quite frankly, Swofford and Co are trying to undo a sorry arse deal they signed a little over a year ago. Swofford & Co were sleeping at the wheel when they signed that deal with ESPN. At the time we got a little more than most folks thought we would. Swofford and his boys were patting themselves on the back for the great deal.

Unfortunately, to get that little extra something, Swofford sold all rights to all football and MBB games until 2023, effectively ending any hopes of ever getting a real ACC network.

Swofford should have been fired for incompetence at that time. ACC really needs a real AD, not some good ole boy from UNC and member of the country clubs around Chapel Hill and Greensboro.

Perhaps I'm overly optimistic but I think the ACC could end up with at least $20 million per school simply because of what the Big 12 (and Pac12) got and for the reasons I mentioned previously. I guess it all depends on how much of an impact the prevailing market rate has on renegotiation.

The ACC could make a good argument that it's at least comparable to the Big 12. I'd even go so far as to say $20 mil. for the ACC might be a bit low simply because ESPN owns their Tier III rights.

[4x4hokies]

i love your optimism, but you know ESPN won't give that to us (why would they?), so we're relying on an arbitrator. i do think an arbitrator will side with us, but he will also take into account the fact we are in year 1 of a 12 year deal, and a contract is a a contract, so that will hurt us some. i'd be happy with $18MM and each school getting Tier 3 back, but i just don't see us getting more than $16-17MM and ESPN is unlikely to give up Tier 3, so maybe we just hope we can force them to bundle them into a new package that might not help us make more money short term, but will help us get our brand out there for the next TV deal in 12 years...

The Big12 was entering into the first year of their tier two deal with Fox and had until 2015-16 left on their ESPN deal. Their ESPN deal was already raised last year when Colorado and Nebraska left and they agreed to pay the same amount for 10 teams as they were for 12 teams. Then Fox agreed to accept TCU and WVU as replacements for TAMU and Missouri and not adjust the price. They've been effectively given three raises since we negotiated our contract. This is why I believe that we could easily see a similar increase in our value...meaning we end up near 20 million.

[BUGGZY]

The Big12 was entering into the first year of their tier two deal with Fox and had until 2015-16 left on their ESPN deal. Their ESPN deal was already raised last year when Colorado and Nebraska left and they agreed to pay the same amount for 10 teams as they were for 12 teams. Then Fox agreed to accept TCU and WVU as replacements for TAMU and Missouri and not adjust the price. They've been effectively given three raises since we negotiated our contract. This is why I believe that we could easily see a similar increase in our value...meaning we end up near 20 million.

hey, i really hope you're right!

[Hateful Hokie]

does this fact change how you feel about the FSU/Clemson situation? if we only end up with $15MM/team per year through 2025 and also don't have ability to sell our own 3rd tier programming like the Big12 schools do, how does FSU turn down an offer from the Big12?

i thought this was all smoke and mirrors when i first heard it, but giving up $5MM and 3rd tier rights for 13 years is probably close to a $100MM+ decision for FSU and Clemson.

that said, if the Big12 really had a shot at getting them for 2013, it would need to be announced by end of June, right? so why announce the TV rights now if they will have to change/be renegotiated this summer? or does the Big12 already have a clause that the ESPN deal goes up$40MM/year with 2 teams from new TV markets and the addition of a CCG?

so many questions, so few answers...

I just don't see FSU or Clemson leaving an elite academic and sports conference over $5 million per year. Seems preposterous to throw away everything over pittance.

[SWEETPEA 05]

I just don't see FSU or Clemson leaving an elite academic and sports conference over $5 million per year. Seems preposterous to throw away everything over pittance.

$5 mil plus 3rd tier rights. Thats about 10-12 a year total for FSU and no one knows how much for clemson. Im guessing for clemson its 7-9 million a year.

[Hateful Hokie]

$5 mil plus 3rd tier rights. Thats about 10-12 a year total for FSU and no one knows how much for clemson. Im guessing for clemson its 7-9 million a year.

That's still nothing in the grand scheme of things. FSU's endowment is $525 million and the the university brings in $200 million ANNUALLY in research funding, not to mention that it's 2011-2012 annual budget is nearly $1.2 BILLION. You think it would be wise for a university to forefeight membership in an elite academic association for $5-12 mm per year more in an unstable conference? There is no returning. In 10 years when the Big XII collapses again the ACC is not going to extend an invite. FSU doesn't just get to come home.