here's why. the Big12 is signing NEW deals to replace EXPIRING deals. the ACC is trying to go back to the table on a 1 year old deal set to expire in 2023. we can't go out to multiple parties to drum up bidding wars. we're locked into an agreement with ESPN and they have exclusive rights during this renegotiation. the BEST we can hope for is that we get this to mediation and the arbiter sees the timing of our contract (signed in a down economy ONE year prior to media rights skyrocketing) and the recent Pac12 and Big12 deals and tells ESPN to either level the offer or open up the contract to competition. call me skeptical, but i just don't see it working out that well for us. i'm just hoping we can get back in the ballpark WITHOUT the 2 year extension ESPN wants. getting it to ~$18MM/year per school through 2023 would feel like a win, but i think we'll end up ~$16MM/year per school through 2025 which would suck at best.
Perhaps I'm overly optimistic but I think the ACC could end up with at least $20 million per school simply because of what the Big 12 (and Pac12) got and for the reasons I mentioned previously. I guess it all depends on how much of an impact the prevailing market rate has on renegotiation.
The ACC could make a good argument that it's at least comparable to the Big 12. I'd even go so far as to say $20 mil. for the ACC might be a bit low simply because ESPN owns their Tier III rights.
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