Today’s word (or term) is: the Pareto Principle (or the 80-20 rule)
The Pareto Principal states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. In business 80% of your profits come from 20% of your customers. 80% of all crimes are committed by 20% of all criminals. When there are only 10 people in Champs, Chris Coleman and I (2) manage to consume 80% of the shots at the bar all by our ownselves. And so forth…
Or, in the case of the Virginia Tech secondary roughly 75% of the effects or on-field performance (could) come from 25% of the causes or in a worst case scenario from just one major starting injury outta Exum, K.Full, Bonner and Jarrett (4).
Whereby one secondary starter outta four (1/4=25%), getting nuked out and hurt for the duration, would thereby cause an effective reduction down to 75% of maximum performance in Coach Gray’s hind-4.
Or in other words, I like my crow rare, yet warm.
As I’ve got some grubbing to do for saying that the 2012 Virginia Tech offensive line was thinner than the 2012 Virginia Tech secondary is. To borrow from the epic WWII movie Midway: the Tech secondary is: “…so thin it’s damn near invisible.” There is talent there folks, though it looks to me like it is years away; plural. That’s not good and neither is this dish or marbleized crow at the moment. </gulp>
However, that’s where things lay as we near the mid-point of sorting things out as August camp 2012 goes in the Virginia Tech defensive hind-4. Where the top-3 reserve Cb’s are all 17 or 18 years old and the two primary back-ups at Rover and Fs have been moved around so much their heads must be spinning just like Michael Keaton’s was in “Beatlejuice”.
Ergo, it sure looks to me like the Secondary <<< depth <<< oLine…
These hind-4 defensive starters are good. That is to say that they are every bit as good as any 4 Cb’s can be with 2 guys starting outta-position. They all break extremely well on the football and none are risk adverse when it comes to gambling or going for the INT. Meaning they will miss on a break or two and that will cost us 10-14 points somewhere as the year wears on. Ditto Bonner and Jarret getting their feets’ wet at Rover and at Fs respectively. However, they will pick some passes off as well. Right now the all-time seasonal mark reads 27 –and mark my words; this 2012 secondary pilfers at least 20 passes this campaign and presses the 1967 squad for the all-time INT lead.
However, this is one smallish set of back-ups in hindsight, foresight and in near-sight alike. Don’t believe me? Check it out … as the recently Olympic Brits say: “…it’s all in the maths.”
- secondary seniors=0
- secondary upperclassmen=2 (Exum and K.Full)
- secondary ballers 5`10“ or smaller=7
- secondary first year players=1o
- Cb’s 177 lbs. or less=7
- Free-Safety’s 199 lbs. or less=all
- Rover’s 197 lbs. or less=all
- able to consume alcohol (legally)=2 (and only 2)
“They’ve not at that level, (they) have a long way to go…”
-Secondary coach Torrian Gray on his back-ups-
Do you see a pattern here? This 2012 secondary is talented; nobody is boo-hooing that. However, they are undersized in terms of being light in the pants and in terms of raw vertical height alike; and they are pretty dang inexperienced on top of all of that. And yet if Exum, K.Full, Bonner and Jarrett all remain upright that will make all of us no never mind. However, our Dime sets are all less gone; our Nickel sets are penny-pinchers and suddenly we have a good deal less variability schematically speaking due to have so many small-cut logs and so much unseasoned green-wood on the 2012 orange and maroon fire. Or, to put the rubber to the road and continue the analogy; if more than one if the starters go down, you will see a steady diet of burnt toast in the secondary this season. And this season fields the best set of passing A.c.c. Qb’s collectively this side of Phillip Rivers and company way back in 2003 Atlantic Coast terms –do not sleep on that folks. i.e. this is just not the year to witness any secondary attrition at Virginia Tech as the A.c.c. has about 7 or 8 Qb’s who could plum get after Coach Gray’s back-ups.
Is Mark Leal the best back-up Qb in the A.c.c.?
Frue; or mostly true.
Accordingly, here is a long overdue XXL sized shout-out to Coach Qb Mike O’Cain for nothing short of an sizzling six year streak of coaching his starter (Qb1) and his back-up (or Qb2) right on up! Did Tyrod Taylor ever regress? How about Logan Thomas? Is he worse now compared to then? This of course brings us to Mark Leal. Or the little Hokie engine that could that most other schools said could not.
Gotta give credit where credit is due and much credit is due to Qb’s coach Mike O’Cain. Coach O’Cain has been on campus for 7 odd years and his Qb1 (starter) and Qb2 (or back-up) have shown improvement each and every season under his expert tutelage.
Think about that for a moment men … did Tyrod Taylor regress? Has Logan Thomas –and his size 19 feet- taken a step backwards? Has Mark Leal showcased a lower floor or a higher ceiling than most expected? That’s nothing short of exceptional Pivot or Qb development folks and that makes Coach Mike O’Cain the exception to the rule.
However, and that praise rightfully bestowed, that does not answer our question regarding whether or not Mark Leal is the best back-up Qb in the A.c.c. The Phil Steele almanac or should I say encyclopedic preview magazine however does. Clint Trickett of Florida State (#6o outta high school) is said to be in the mix. I know some Seminole sources who say he is closer to E.J. Manuel than most think. #4o Cole Stoudt certainly has the double-helices or D.N.A. fueled genetics on his side. As yes he is related to former Pittsburgh Stiller Qb Cliff (below). Dave Shinski at Boston College surely wins the experience award. #8 Chad Kelly of Clemson by way of some guy named Jim Kelly is hands down the highest ranked high school Qb of the lot. Although it is whispered that he is a bit raw as a pure pocket passer goes and could eventually slot over on the defensive side if Pivot does not work out for him. Former Hokie recruit one Marquise Williams (above) of UNC fame is the highest ranked combo-Qb, checking in at a lofty #13 outta high school. This one surely looks the dual-threat part; his offer sheet his nothing short of a South Eastern honor-roll plus some school named Notre Dame. Now, let’s get another mea cupla outta the way right now. Did I miss a diamond in a rough back-up Qb outta the 29 guys I just scouted for this section? Yah; prolly, almost had too in fact. Though on the surface, you have one guy (Williams of UNC) who appears to indeed have a higher ceiling than Mark Leal of Virginia Tech. And one or two other guys who are no less than in the conversation vis-à-vis as well. However, none of them have been in their given program for more than a single solitary season, and by-the-bye, the back-up A.c.c. Qb’s looked rather thin this year on the whole to me. So at least in a present tense sense, I’d have to rank Mark Leal* number one as A.c.c. back-up Qb’s go albeit it with an asterisk. As Leal is the most ready to play right now; even if the Williams kid is prolly the best Qb in the A.c.c. down the road.
August camp 2012 scrimmage#1 viewing guide:
Here’s what I’ll be looking forward to on Saturday down in Blacksburg Virginia as the first scrimmage is really designed for third-teamers and second-teamers and the ongoing evaluation thereof. Who is slotted too low? Who is slotted too high? And who might just break-outta the pack and surprise you a bit come Saturday at 4pm?
Easy as 1-2-3 Holmes, Scales, Edmunds maximum power punch approach to football? Holmes, Coleman and Mangus for speed or game-breaking max’ — some Heinz-57 variety sauce mixture to keep defenses off-balance with a blend of power and speed alike? Or simply opponent or need specific based football with up to as many as five different Tb’s seeing meaningful carries this year? Although I lean towards the later option; we do need to see who does what this Saturday and if all five of ‘em hold onto the rock this summer. As there almost has to be a depth-chart mover-and-shaker here somewhere; although a shaky summer camp in terms of possession integrity could foible all of that for any Virginia Tech Tb not named Holmes.
From above, the back-up secondary players. We are small, smaller, and smallest back there out on Coach Gray’s proverbial island(s) at Cb. We do have two smart looking physical metrics prospects at Rover (Cole) and at Fs (Aromire); although each of them despite their right-sized frames looks to be a year away. Not to mention the fact that they just flip-flopped positions and need time to settle in. So anything can and prolly will happen here as the depth chart battle royale otherwise known as the 2012 secondary back-ups. As they are set to begin vetting themselves with only about three weeks to go vs. the X’s and O’s steeplechase variously known as the Georgia Tech flex-bone offense as we still have lots of secondary issues left to sort out. Right now my sources suggest that there could be as many as three full t-freshmen in the secondary 2-deep and go ahead and raise your hand if you are comfortable with that one. Coach T.Gray and b’street: “we neither.”
Ditto the Wr position where the other Fuller (Kyle) really needs to keep an eye on his rear view mirror as the objects that will appear close to him go by the names of Mr. Asante, #4 Mr. Coleman, and maybe even Mr. Caleb who is said to be wanting for some pulmonary conditioning. Although the recent whispers regarding the well-being of D.J. Coles are said to be more encouraging indeed.
Punter appears to be –if you will pardon the pun- up in the air as well. Although, I am told that we now have four full-fledged and talented legs on campus one of which kicks left-footed; or with the highly unusual clockwise spin on the ball. The early feelers suggest that incumbent Punter one Mr. Branthover has been the lead-dog here of late; albeit it not by much. His height and release have both improved; although his consistency still remains inconsistent at times. Though it is also said that Frank has been smitten by the Indy kid (Hughes) who enjoys textbook perfect technique and a left-footed release; and likewise by the D.C. kid (Windmuller) who prolly has the longest leg on the team. So we shall see who does emerge just in time for the Wrambling Wreck from Georgia Tech—and yet either way, Punting looks set for a noticeable if not soaring upgrade in 2012.
Yah; I know, you get tired of reading this and my keyboard is surely fatigued from typing it; however Harry S. Truman and I are both from Missouri on this one. Yes, the early vibes are positive ones indeed as Curt Newsome and company reportedly are edging closer and closer to playing somewhere beyond 7-deep upfront this season. That said, most of these 2’s (or back-ups) have never played much of anything. With 47 total career snaps combined among ‘em if my Ginko whatever it is called –I forget- is big poppin’. I for one wanna Eye in the Sky this oLine group good and hard and see if they pass anything more than Will Stewart’s so-called eye-test when it comes to pass blocking itself. If they do, I will be the very first one to happily give them a clean bill of ophthalmological health and therefore happily look forward to them doing work in the upcoming year.
6`7“ Logan Thomas:
All I will say here is good luck seeing Coleman, Mangus, Scales, Holmes or Edmunds behind him in the Pistol. Think about that one for a moment as LT3 will virtually cover up or outright hide the initial or jab-step of each and every Tech Tb due to his towering edge in height when viewed from a defensive line-of-sight inside the proverbial box this season. Don’t sleep on how much the towering LT3 himself can help disguise the caliber of this automatic or semi-automatic Pistol offense folks. I don’t know about you, though I favor the fox vs. the hounds in that one.
Drive safe all … and Coach God willing, I’ll see you on Saturday at the top of Section 12.